Fixtures

Picks, odds and edge

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FinalFT 1-2

Atlético Madrid

FT 1-204/05/2026, 02:00 AM UTC+7

Barcelona

La Liga / Football

Prediction

SAMIYO model view

A1X2low confidence

Probability

54.8%

Odds

2.32

Model odds

1.82

EV / Edge

+27.2%

Kelly

20.6%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

NOBTTSlow confidence

Details

Match context

Competition

La Liga

Sport

Football

Kickoff

04/05/2026, 02:00 AM UTC+7

Freshness

historical

Model notes

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

Odds

Market prices

1X2

A

stale / 1 books

2.28

1X2

D

stale / 1 books

3.75

1X2

H

stale / 1 books

3.05

BTTS

No

stale / 1 books

2.77

BTTS

Yes

stale / 1 books

1.48

Probability

53.7%

Odds

2.77

Model odds

1.86

EV / Edge

+48.7%

Kelly

27.5%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

UNDERTotalmedium confidence

Probability

64.6%

Odds

2.50

Model odds

1.55

EV / Edge

+61.6%

Kelly

41.1%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

UNDERTotalhigh confidence

Probability

75.0%

Odds

2.11

Model odds

1.33

EV / Edge

+58.3%

Kelly

52.5%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

UNDERTotalhigh confidence

Probability

78.9%

Odds

1.87

Model odds

1.27

EV / Edge

+47.5%

Kelly

54.5%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

UNDERTotalhigh confidence

Probability

81.8%

Odds

1.74

Model odds

1.22

EV / Edge

+42.4%

Kelly

57.3%

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

System picks

UNDERTotal

Confidence

64.6%

Odds

2.50

EV / Edge

+61.6%

Kelly

--

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

YESBTTS

Confidence

74.9%

Odds

1.43

EV / Edge

+24.9%

Kelly

--

BTTS side YES chosen from current pricing.

OVERTotal

Confidence

70.4%

Odds

1.53

EV / Edge

+20.4%

Kelly

--

Total side OVER chosen from line 2.5 pricing.

A1X2

Confidence

54.9%

Odds

2.30

EV / Edge

0.0%

Kelly

--

Recent five-match form leans toward Barcelona.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

Total

Over 3.2

stale / 1 books

2.02

Total

Under 3.2

stale / 1 books

1.87

Market	Selection	Line	Books	Odds
1X2	A	--	1	2.28
1X2	D	--	1	3.75
1X2	H	--	1	3.05
BTTS	No	--	1	2.77
BTTS	Yes	--	1	1.48
Total	Over 3.2	3.25	1	2.02
Total	Under 3.2	3.25	1	1.87