SAMIYO

FinalFT 4-2

Aston Villa

FT 4-205/16/2026, 03:00 AM

Liverpool

Premier League / Football

Prediction

SAMIYO model view

A1X2low confidence

Probability

46.8%

Odds

2.43

Model odds

2.14

EV / Edge

+13.7%

Kelly

9.6%

Recent five-match form leans toward Liverpool.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

OVERTotal 2.5medium confidence

Probability

68.0%

Odds

1.73

Model odds

1.47

EV / Edge

+17.6%

Kelly

24.1%

Recent five-match form leans toward Liverpool.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

Details

Match context

Competition

Premier League

Sport

Football

Kickoff

05/16/2026, 03:00 AM

Freshness

historical

Model notes

Recent five-match form leans toward Liverpool.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.
Tier3 unavailable; predictor_v2 used lower-tier fallback.

Odds

Market prices

Green numbers mean the model expects positive expected value on that selection.

1X2

2 books

AwayPick

2.42

46.8%+13.7% EV

Draw

3.47

24.8%+13.7% EV

Home

2.75

28.4%+13.7% EV

Total

2.5

2 books

Over 2.5

1.71

Under 2.5

2.12