SAMIYO

FinalFT 1-2

Man City

FT 1-205/24/2026, 11:00 PM

Aston Villa

Premier League / Football

Prediction

SAMIYO model view

H1X2medium confidence

Probability

62.6%

Odds

1.29

Model odds

1.60

EV / Edge

-19.3%

Kelly

0.0%

Recent five-match form leans toward Man City.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

OVERTotal 2.5high confidence

Probability

81.2%

Odds

1.30

Model odds

1.23

EV / Edge

+5.5%

Kelly

18.5%

Recent five-match form leans toward Man City.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.

Details

Match context

Competition

Premier League

Sport

Football

Kickoff

05/24/2026, 11:00 PM

Freshness

historical

Model notes

Recent five-match form leans toward Man City.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Rest imbalance is material for this matchup.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

Odds

Market prices

Green numbers mean the model expects positive expected value on that selection.

1X2

2 books

Away

8.70

18.4%-19.3% EV

Draw

5.96

19.1%-19.3% EV

HomePick

1.28

62.6%-19.3% EV

Total

2.5

2 books

Over 2.5

1.29

Under 2.5

3.44