SAMIYO

FinalFT 3-0

Brighton

FT 3-004/22/2026, 03:00 AM

Chelsea

Premier League / Football

Prediction

SAMIYO model view

H1X2low confidence

Probability

47.8%

Odds

2.50

Model odds

2.09

EV / Edge

+19.6%

Kelly

13.1%

Recent five-match form leans toward Brighton.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

UNDERTotal 2.5medium confidence

Probability

60.3%

Odds

2.22

Model odds

1.66

EV / Edge

+33.9%

Kelly

27.8%

Recent five-match form leans toward Brighton.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.

Details

Match context

Competition

Premier League

Sport

Football

Kickoff

04/22/2026, 03:00 AM

Freshness

historical

Model notes

Recent five-match form leans toward Brighton.
Recent goal differential creates a clear gap.
Pregame market pricing reinforces the view.
Tier3 unavailable; predictor_v2 used lower-tier fallback.

Odds

Market prices

Green numbers mean the model expects positive expected value on that selection.

1X2

2 books

Away

2.68

26.9%+19.6% EV

Draw

3.56

25.2%+19.6% EV

HomePick

2.47

47.8%+19.6% EV

Total

2.5

2 books

Over 2.5

1.65

Under 2.5

2.21